CHEYENNE — The ripple effects of Wyoming's economic downturn are still being felt throughout the state, despite some indications of recovery. Wyoming depends on mineral extraction for around 70 percent of its revenue. So when commodity prices drop - as they did in late 2014 - the state's economy suffers the effect of a bust.

Through the last three years, communities across Wyoming have seen jobs disappear, populations flee and government services contract. It hit bottom in summer 2016, when the oil and gas rig count was at its lowest, but has since recovered somewhat with rig counts and jobs climbing back up.

The Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, or CREG, October report showed a slightly more optimistic outlook than expected. Lawmakers eager to avoid revenue-generating measures - such as sales and property taxes - are hoping for more good news when the report is updated in January.

For the second consecutive year, 2017 saw Wyoming's population decrease. The state's population dropped by more than 6,600 since 2015, with 5,600 of that between July 2016 and July this year — the biggest decrease in 28 years.

"That's driven by employment opportunities," said Wenlin Liu, Wyoming's Economic Analysis Division chief economist.

Wyoming's labor force declining around 3 percent and its population declining at 1 percent was the worst performance of any state in the U.S. in 2017. The nation's economy has seen eight straight years of labor market and economic expansion. Wyoming's neighboring states of Colorado, Utah and Idaho all saw strong growth.

Liu said it appears young workers left the state, and some of its older workers left the labor market. Wyoming has a high population of baby boomers, so as the total population decreased, the numbers of those 65 and older increased. That can put a strain on the need for services - especially from the Wyoming Department of Health. So even though young families require services, say, for their children's education and health care, Liu said the parents are in the workforce, contributing more to the economy overall.

"For the next 10 years, it's going to be like that, with the older population increasing very fast due to baby boomers aging," Liu said.

Mineral extraction saw some jobs and rig counts climb back up in late 2017, leading to sales and use taxes higher than the same time a year ago. However, all those numbers are still considerably lower than pre-2015 levels.

"What we're starting to see, at least in mining, is something of a comeback," said Jim Robinson, Economic Analysis Division principal economist. "(But) we are certainly not back to where we were two years ago."

To return to those pre-bust levels, a number of factors outside the state's control will have to change. Crude oil prices have been trending up modestly, while natural gas and coal prices are hovering in a stable place. Permits to drill have gone up significantly in the last year, though developers tend to sit on those while they wait for market conditions to suit actually putting rigs in the ground.

"What we see going on with (applications for permits to drill) tells us that there's still a viable market in Wyoming, and energy companies are still interested, but it doesn't relate to drilling activity, at least immediately," Robinson said.

And it's important to keep in mind, Robinson said, that competing states like Oklahoma and Texas have an even bigger presence, and companies have properties there that could potentially be more profitable than sites in Wyoming.

There's still potential for oil and natural gas to see a comeback if prices reach a point that incentivizes developers, but they both account for a smaller portion of Wyoming's revenue than coal. The October CREG report indicated that coal accounted for around 40 percent of the state's mineral severance tax revenue, while oil sat at 29 percent and natural gas at 26 percent.

"Coal is by far the biggest one," Robinson said.

And coal is facing a number of challenges to having a significant comeback.

The whole market perception of coal has changed dramatically, Robinson said. For one, he said Wyoming's biggest coal customers have started converting power plants to process natural gas instead as its prices become less volatile. Liu said renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, are also becoming more efficient and affordable, and the market wants them. The October CREG report projected that coal production would likely continue to decline between 2017 and 2022.

"The trend is for less coal production," Robinson said. "It's not dramatically dropping, but I don't see an increase."

And when it comes to those sectors providing high-paying jobs in the state, Liu said it is further complicated by advances in technology. Wyoming lost around 9,000 mining jobs since early 2015, with a couple thousand of those losses returning in the third quarter of 2017. But extraction, Liu said, is coming to depend less and less on human labor, and that's a trend unlikely to reverse.

Overall, Wyoming had 1,700 fewer jobs in November this year than the same time in 2016. Goods-producing industries added 2,200 jobs, while service-producing jobs declined by 3,900. Construction also declined by 200 jobs in November 2017 compared to 2016. In the third quarter of 2017, construction and professional services were down 3 percent from 2016. Government jobs were also down by 1,300 in November, which was similar to the quarterly drop.

Personal income saw modest growth in the third quarter of 2017 compared to the second quarter at a rate of 0.4 percent. That's less than the surge in the first quarter of the year, after the two previous quarters in the negative. And it's still lagging the regional and national trends.

It all ties back to mineral extraction. Most sectors, in one way or another, support extraction industries. When government revenue decreased, elected officials cut spending in areas such as K-12 education. With school construction slowing down compared to previous years, Liu said the construction sector was affected. When workers flee the state, it impacts earnings, Robinson said. Tax revenue then drops because fewer people are working, leaving fewer businesses and individuals spending money in Wyoming.

"There's a fairly good-sized ripple effect working its way through all corners of the state," Robinson said.